The coming Republican fall

by Larry Meacham

Pay no attention to the national polls, an analysis of state voting trends shows Obama's the guy

Barack Obama's tour of the Middle East and Europe looked like the Second Coming. Barack sermonizes on a Jerusalem mount. U.S. troops cheer as Barack shoots a three-pointer with nothing but net -- the loaves and fishes. Jordan's King Abdullah personally drives Barack to the airport. A crowd of 200,000 applauds Barack's Berlin speech. Barack speaks to reporters in front of 10 Downing Street, with English bobbies on guard.

The media were seduced by the great pictures, but frustrated by a lack of gaffes. Meanwhile, in order to keep their ratings high, they are desperately trying to make the November election seem tight. Good luck.

National polls are irrelevant. Focus on the Electoral College. For instance, the West Coast map should not show Washington and Oregon as close. They went Democratic the last two elections, the polls show Obama well ahead and a recent Obama rally in Portland drew an astounding 75,000 people. California and Hawaii are even more solidly Democratic.

In the Midwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan also should not be counted as swing states, having voted Democratic even when the uninspiring John Kerry was the candidate. As for Iowa, George Bush won narrowly in 2004. But Obama has a powerful organization there that won him the primary, while John McCain did not even try to compete on the Republican side. Count Iowa for Obama, plus his home state of Illinois.

Obama will win the Northeast, as Democrats usually do, except perhaps New Hampshire (only 4 electoral votes). Forget maps that show Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware as doubtful -- they are consistently Democratic.

Pennsylvania is a key swing state. It voted for Kerry and Al Gore, recent polls show Obama ahead by double digits and Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell has a strong organization. Give Pennsylvania to Obama.

In other words, Obama will win all the states that usually go Democratic. That gives him 255 electoral votes. It only takes 270 to win.

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