Nicholas Schmidle, who lived in Pakistan from 2006 to 2008, is a fellow at the New America Foundation and author of To Live or To Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan, which will be published May 12.
As Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari heads for Washington—amid a fresh surge of violence in his country—Nicholas Schmidle explains how a Karachi playboy and accused murderer became our ally, and why his days are numbered.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari relishes politics behind closed doors. But as his army continues to battle Taliban militants in northwest Pakistan with fighter jets, air-dropped commandos, and helicopter gunships, Zardari has been keeping an exceptionally low profile.
Perhaps for good reason. Even though the military has reclaimed some of the territory overrun by the Talibs last week in Buner district, the Taliban are still holding some 50 kidnapped Pakistani soldiers hostage, tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced, and there's a nasty ethnic conflict festering in Karachi that's already left dozens dead. If part of a president's job is to guarantee the safety of his people, Zardari is having an awful time of it these days.
Zardari is, in many ways, a fluke president. A Karachi socialite and playboy who reportedly turned his basement into a disco, Zardari stabled his polo horses at the prime minister's official residence during Bhutto's first term in office.
The Taliban's conquest of Buner, an advance that brought them within 70 miles of Islamabad, triggered international alarm. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went so far as to warn the Senate that "Pakistan poses a mortal threat to the security and safety of our country and the world." But Zardari's office issued just one vacuous, disingenuous statement, declaring that military action was only "one aspect of the solution" and that his government "will not succumb to any pressure from the militants." On the first part, he's right: Military efforts to crush the Taliban are only likely to breathe life into the insurgency. On the second point, however, he's just bluffing: The fact is that Zardari's government—and Pervez Musharraf's before that—have already succumbed in northwest Pakistan, both having negotiating peace deals that allowed the Taliban safe havens.
When Zardari shows up in Washington next week, he'll likely try to justify these concessions as part of a bigger strategy. But will the White House believe him? Could Zardari possibly have something else up his sleeve?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-04-30/the-playboy-running-pakistan/
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